Formula 1 Betting By Numbers
If you like to bet on formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the statistics, and so over
the last few days I've analysed the form guide to see which drivers
have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of
the most popular formula 1 betting markets. The form guide
charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss
for every driver.However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various betting categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, below...
* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.
Most Profitable Bets:
Winning Driver: Sebastian Vettel (£3.61 profit rating)
Podium Finish: Romain Grosjean (£2.50 profit rating)
Top Six Finish: Nico Hulkenberg (£17.50 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish: Nico Hulkenberg (£3.00 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier: Lewis Hamilton (£3.44 profit rating)
Winning Team: Mercedes (£2.83 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row: Mark Webber (£2.50 profit rating)
Fastest Lap: Mark Webber (£5.83 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader: Sebastian Vettel (£3.30 profit rating)
First To Retire: Paul di Resta (£13.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire: Force India (£13.33 profit rating)
Safety Car: No (£1.54 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements: One (£1.50 profit rating)
Winning Margin: Under 6 Seconds (£0.37 profit rating)
N.B. The profit rating is weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the fact that recent Grand Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming results. To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then applied the following multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%, Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.
Nico Hulkenberg ranks top in the top six and top ten betting markets thanks to his 5th position at Monza and other strong performances at Silverstone and the Nurburgring, and when you consider that Lotus now have at least one seat available for next season, his timing couldn't be better.
If you're looking to minimise your risk, rather than gambling on a large return, then here are the bets which have come up most often in the last six Grand Prix:
Safest Bets:
Winning Driver: Sebastian Vettel (4 wins from 6 Grand Prix)
Podium Finish: Sebastian Vettel (5 podiums from 6 GP)
Top Six Finish: Fernando Alonso (6 top six finishes from 6 GP)
Top Ten Finish: Mark Webber (6 top ten finishes from 6 GP)
Fastest Qualifier: Lewis Hamilton (4 poles from 6 GP)
Winning Team: Red Bull (4 wins from 6 GP)
Qualify On Front Row: Sebastian Vettel (5 front rows from 6 GP)
Fastest Lap: Mark Webber (3 fastest laps from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Leader: Sebastian Vettel (4 from 6 GP)
First To Retire: Paul di Resta (1 from 6 GP)
First Team To Retire: Force India (2 from 6 GP)
Safety Car: No (4 from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Retirements: None (5 from 6 GP)
Winning Margin: Under 6 Seconds (3 from 6 GP)
N.B. When two or more drivers/results have achieved an equal success rate, I have listed the driver/result which would have returned the biggest profit. Bets which have paid out in each of the last six Grand prix are underlined.
Sebastian Vettel's name seems to crop up in more categories than any other driver, although this will no doubt be reflected in his odds. As usual, bear in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future success!
If you'd like to check out more detailed form guide charts then you can find them at the following links:
The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish
The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets
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